Evening All
Just a quick post from me on how to avoid things spiraling out of control and making more and more deposits into your bookmaker. So a few points to share on what I have learned over the 29, yes twenty-nine years I have been betting;
- A bookmaker wants you to deposit, if you are continually doing so then you are a profitable customer to them. Remember they do not have a product, they are not selling anything apart from lines which are a representation of their opinion on “chance or probability” call it what you will, of a certain outcome happening, or not. They have no end product, or service that you can buy. Look back at your deposit and withdrawal (if you have one) history over the past 6/12 months across all accounts, that will give you a reality check of where you are at with your betting. Do this now before you read any further and make an honest assessment. Does that 20/1 winner last month really cover this month, or the previous ones for that matter when you had an 8/1 and a 10/1 come in and were giving it large to your mates down the pub?
- Create a betting bank – look at your cashflow and determine what you can afford to play with from your savings. Don’t top it up with more savings, or even worse disposable income. Learn the game and learn how to not have to keep depositing and spending/losing money on someone else’s opinion of probability. Start with a realistic amount and honestly if you are in a relationship where you have a joint account, let the significant other know of your plan to “double the money” and to consider it as an Investment so you can provide more for each other tax free! Betting does not need to be a dirty little secret, it is just another investment vehicle. I know that is a bit tongue in cheek, but you need a betting bank from what you have agreed is comfortably affordable and not drip feed it through the month/year.
- Remove the money factor – Once you have created and deposited your betting bank, convert it into points. I equate 1% of total bank to 1 point. From here on in you are working on points, not pounds, euros, dollars or whatever. Why is this important? Money creates greed, money creates chasing and subsequent losses. Once you can bet with the mindset of points the rest will (almost) look after itself.
- Know when to bet – There is absolutely no need to bet every day, the only people that expect you to are bookies or affiliates. Think about that for a moment. Bet only when the odds and probability are with you and that doesn’t happen every day. Also whilst there is decent money to be made in lower league football if the lines and odds do not look right then stay away. Just watch the markets, make some predictions and note the outcomes. This will help you get a better understanding of when to bet. You. Are. Losing. Nothing.
- Stop backing favourites – Why are you surprised when they lose. It happens, and there is little value in it. If you have been betting a while you know this especially on the football. As an example, if you backed Arsenal and Man City to win all their home games over the past 5 seasons at starting prices on bet365 you would be down. Significantly.
- Your team – Whether you consider yourself a fan or supporter of a particular team, don’t bet on them. Your opinion is no longer subjective and will be swayed by player x coming back, or we have to beat these muppets, etc. More often than not the muppets are a decent shout at a double chance.
- Bookie offers/Price Boosts – Stay. Well. Away. Think about it for a minute, why would someone who needs your money to be profitable, or more profitable offer you an incentive to back teams at higher odds? This isn’t rocket sciernce guys – It’s in their interest!
- Odds and Probability – Ideally you want to understand the relationship between these two, the more variance thn the more you bet.
There will be more to this but I am off to bed, I haven’t even mentioned price boosts, or many other considerations, but if you take anything from this then please take this, only bet with disposable income
Night All
Mark