Hi! Thanks for visiting the blog.
This is mainly a football blog to help the punters find an edge over the bookmakers. This is the first page that you have to read and understand if you want to follow our style of betting. We always look for value in the prices we are offered. Do you want to start winning some decent money from the football?
THE FREE E-BOOK ON VALUE BETTING JUST FOR YOU!
Are you fed up of losing on football accas every weeekend? Arsenal or Liverpool busting the slip at home? It’s time to expose a myth – betting on favourites loses you money in the long term in football! FACT. Let me explain.
This season is the first since 1998 that Arsenal have not been dining in the Champions League. In other words, they have had a top-four finish for the past 19 years in the Premier League. In the past 5 years, prior to this season, they had won 63.1% of their home games! That is almost 20% above the home win % in that period. But guess what? On their starting price in those games if you had backed them to win every match at level stakes you would have lost money! Mad isn’t it?
Or is it? You would have made more money backing Stoke or Swansea to win at home over the same period. Why is this? Hard working guys and girls, bet these favourites to win, week in, week out. And guess what? The Bookmakers love it! Ignore Price Boosts, ignore favourites that are priced below what they should be!
When you understand the relationship between odds and probability you put yourself ahead of the game. My eBook (written some time ago now) expands on the concepts, please focus on the meaning rather than the look, I will get to updating it at some point! I refer to accounts no longer active, but they were there, back in the day.
YOUR FREE E-BOOK IS HERE
So here it is, previously only available to e-mail subscribers, it is now available for all! Just click here
These principles apply to any sport or market, not just football, I hope it helps you, and if you have any queries drop me a line by replying to this post or emailing me @ firstname.lastname@example.org
YOUR BETTING BANK
I originally wrote this in 2016, now adding it here as it is fundamental to betting. I have updated it slightly from the original post, but a few points to share on what I have learned over the twenty-nine years I have been betting;
- A bookmaker wants you to deposit, if you are continually doing so then you are a profitable customer to them. They are not selling anything apart from lines which are a representation of their opinion on “chance or probability” call it what you will, of a certain outcome happening, or not. They have no end product or service that you can buy. Self-Assessment time – Look back at your deposit and withdrawal (if you have one) history over the past 6/12 months across all accounts. This will give you a reality check of where you are at with your betting. Do this now before you read any further and make an honest assessment. Does that 20/1 winner last month really cover this month, or the previous ones for that matter when you had an 8/1 and a 10/1 come in?
- Create a betting bank – look at your cashflow and determine what you can afford to play with from your disposable income. Deposit that into a bank across multiple bookmaker accounts to start with. Start with a realistic amount and if you are in a relationship where you have a joint account, let the significant other know what you are doing. Emphasise that it is for fun only and that you can spare the money. Betting does not need to be a dirty little secret, it can be just another investment vehicle with patience and experience. So to reiterate, create a betting bank from what you have agreed is comfortably affordable and do not drip feed it throughout the month/year.
- Remove the money factor – Once you have created and deposited your betting bank, convert it into points. I equate 1% of total bank to 1 point. From here on in you are working on points, not pounds, euros, dollars or whatever. Why is this important? Money creates greed, money creates chasing and subsequent losses. Once you can bet with the mindset of points the rest will (almost) look after itself. For a sustainable and enjoyable betting experience, I suggest standard stakes of 1 point (1% of total bank) up to a maximum of 3 points (3% of total bank) on any bet.
- Know when to bet – There is absolutely no need to bet every day, the only people that want you to are bookies or certain affiliates. Think about that for a moment. Bet only when the odds and probability are with you. Also there is often far more value in lower league football. Less is wagered on these games and if the bookies get it wrong their exposure isn’t as high as on the main leagues. Therefore there is a higher chance that markets won’t be priced up as accurately. Regardless of which game you are looking at if the line and odds do not look right then stay away. Just watch the markets, make some predictions and note the outcomes. This will help you get a better understanding of when to bet. For example, I will often watch a game where the price I want for overs, is not there pre-game. If no early goal then great I get the price I want. If there is an early goal I leave it.
- Stop backing favourites blindly – Why are you surprised when they lose? It happens, every, single day. If you have been betting a while you know this. As an example in football, if you backed Arsenal to win all their home games over the past 5 seasons in the EPL at starting prices on bet365 you would be down.
- Your team – Whether you consider yourself a fan or supporter of a particular team, I suggest you avoid them. Your opinion is unlikely to be subjective.
- Price Boosts and similar – Stay. Well. Away. Think about it for a minute, why would a business that needs your money to be profitable, or more profitable, offer you an incentive to back teams at higher odds? These offers are heavily promoted. Have you ever wondered why? It’s just like any “product” in any other industry, if the company expects it to make more money they will push it. The only exception to this is the free bet offers. This isn’t rocket science guys – It’s in their interest!
- Odds and Probability – Ideally you want to understand the relationship between these two (see free eBook above), the more variance in your favour then the more you bet (Remember 3% max).
- Your Mindset – I think this is the most important of all the above points. Don’t chase losses, don’t let big winners fool you into thinking you are better than you are and make you reckless with your stakes. Accept the wins, let them go and move on. Accept the losses, let them go, and move on.
Remember, only bet with disposable income, and when the fun stops, STOP.
Back in Feb 2017, I was asked by a follower what resources I used to research my football bets. Instead of passing on just what I know (there is only one of me after all), I quoted the tweet and asked you guys to contribute. And did you ever! Thanks for all the responses and there were some sites in there I had not heard of let alone visited. I have collated the responses into the below, please bear in mind it is a bit of a popularity contest but there are very good sites in there that I visit daily to research.
It shouldn’t need explaining but the resource column is the site or the app, the sites should be linked so you can click them to take you there direct and for the apps just look on the App Store or GooglePlay. The count is the number of followers that mentioned the resource.
|club twitter feeds||2|
|Football Predictions App||1|
Back to top