Hi all,
I am Utsav and Mark has kindly agreed to let me use the blog to post horse racing selections over the next couple of months. More about me, the service, and of course the selections in the blog.
About me:
I am a student studying in Exeter at the moment have been betting on horses for the last 5 years. I have thoroughly enjoyed betting on them and have picked multiple big priced winners. I have set up a new twitter account @utsavkilla for any questions/queries you might have regarding my selections and any significant updates on the selections. More about it in the section below.
About the Service:
The aim of these blogs will be to identify horses who may outrun their odds and the main focus will lie on horses priced higher than 6/1. This would mean there could be long losing runs and hence advise a starting bankroll of 250 points to sustain the swings. Each horse will have a clear staking plan and a short write-up as to why I fancy the horse. A running P/L will be posted to track the progress of these horses and see how they are performing. Onto the business end (why you are here).
Today’s Selections:
Running P/L – 0
2:10 Kempton
Lihou 12/1 (widely available) 1pt ew 3 places
This looks a fairly open race and my pin landed on Lihou as the horse is 1lb higher than its last winning mark. The trainer has also dropped it to 5 furlongs for the first time in nearly 2 years and looks set to put in a strong run with his only course win coming at 5F in a class 4 race (same conditions today.)
5:40 Kempton
Spurofthemoment 13/2 (Skybet – 4 places) 1pt ew
Another wide-open race and were looking to Spurofthemoment to have a big run. The horse had been run in better races previously and has mediocre form but this could have been done to get a lucrative opening mark which it has and in a class 6 race could blow away her competition. The trainer operates at 13% with first-time handicappers and has an 11% TJ combo strike rate.
1:20 Newcastle
So Beloved 25/1 (BF and PP – 4 places) (Many 20s for 4 places about) 1pt ew
Firmament 10/1 (365) (9/1 BF and PP) 1.5 pts win
So beloved- A wide-open race again and the first selection has been without a win since 2016 and has tumbled down the weights. He has been running well recently with a 2nd at 8f on his 2nd last run and should be worth considering at 25s running 16lbs lower than its last winning mark.
Firmament- Another one from D’O’Meara who has winning form at Newcastle over 8f and is ridden by Danny Tudhope who boasts a 23% win ratio at the course over the past year. The TJ combo is operating at 16%. It could pay to dutch the O’Meara runners (at least that’s what I am hoping for)
6:00 Newcastle
Society Red 16/1 (Coral- 4 places) (14/1 widely available for 4 places) 1 pt ew
Another race where many are in with a shout and I am punting on red society to take to tapeta and run a strong race. The horse is winless in the last 2 years but it has been running on turf mostly. This has resulted in his mark falling considerably and a switch to tapeta surface should he take to it might give him a strong advantage. Trainer boasts a 15% SR in the last year at Newcastle and 18% TJ combo over the same time-frame could see a strong run from Society Red at 16s.
Points staked- 9.5
Hoping for a good start to the blog and best of luck with all your bets today
Utsav
Sports tips, statistics & inplay alerts