FHG Strat
There has been a proliferation of “lists” to bet on in the social media circles of “Tipsters” in the past 2 years or so. Some (not many) publish a guide to with it. I am talking specifically here about FHG lists.
These lists have their place and are a great betting tool if you know how to play them. With our product “Quick Stats” (QS) you are not restricted to one type of list and can make lists on any market, over 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12-month time frames, filtered by specific conditions that you are looking for.
You have so much more control and are not relying on your “tipster” to be online when you have time to bet. We’re all busy after all.
So, here’s my take on FHG lists, I have a few different ones and at the moment the vanilla pregame is at 83% over 500 games.
Updated Strat based on more recent experiences, times are a guideline and only to be followed if you are actively sat there betting, I will often miss Kos and place a bet at 12’ as an example on the GB20/30 lines as my entry.
FHGs at KO are usually short priced, so how best to play them? My honest answer is I do not know, but this is how I do it.
- Think of your normal stake, we are going to split that into 4, or in other words 0.25 pt a time
- To mop up those early goal games the only play at KO is a goal before 10/20 or 30 depending on odds when the o1 is not close to evens. This also lets the odds drift.
- If you played 10 or 20 after that period if there is no goal play again before 30.
- After 30 mins the 0.25 before has either landed or not, if it has you can walk away from the game as these are generally priced much better than the pregame goal lines.
- If no goals at 30 mins odds should be 2.5s or better, another 0.25 pt here, I personally prefer to wait for 3s
- And then follow it in with another 0.25 pt on the o1.5 line should be getting 17s or above for this in most games
Look at today’s goal times below, this is not an unusual pattern. It does not apply to all games but remember these are games already picked out where we are expecting a FHG.
From today’s games below 70% of the goals came before 30 IO 1.42, of the games 25 of the 40 available Inplay had a GB30 62.5% IO 1.6.
Do the math and have a look at the GB30 markets ideally if you have the time, when the games go Inplay as the price will already, usually be on the up.
If I have the time I prefer to drip the GB10 then GB20, GB30 etc if the goal has not hit by 10 or 20, and then if not by 30 I like to play the o0.5 at that point, and if the o1.5 is already at 15s play that as well or wait for it.
IMPORTANT: If you “green up” a FHG list like below just based on the premise that there has been a FHG that is no indication of how well the list has performed for your betting bank. If you are advising wait for evens (or whatever odds) then you are going to miss the early goals. And what do you do then, after you have missed that early goal. Any FHG list such as this should only be greened if it returned a winner based on the strat that you were advised to play it with. Hope that all makes sense, if you think it through and come up with a better way to play a FHG list please let me know.
PS You can also use this strat for SHG to an extent.
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