Morning All
Thought I would write a bit more than the normal post today as I have a bit of time. We are still enduring the international break which means league fixtures are significantly reduced to pick some winners from. There are no top tier games scheduled, unless you consider the Welsh Premier League top tier.
We are now well into the season though for the main Euro leagues so we have a better understanding of how teams are shaping up, their strengths and weaknesses, and also something that is often overlooked, which of the summer signings have settled in well and those that are struggling to adjust to their new team/manager/league. I have turned my attention today to the second and third tiers in Italy.
Kick Off 2 pm, Italy Serie B: Verona v Novara
Novara travel to the Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi this afternoon where they face the league leaders, Verona. Verona have an almost unblemished record at home since their relegation from Serie A last season, only dropping points to Brescia who fought out a 2-2 draw. Novara bring with them a very much unwanted away record that reads P6 L6 and a Goals For & Goals Against record that reads GF 5, GA 12.
The last time these 2 sides met at the Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi ended in a 1-1 draw back in the 2012/13 season. Novara have never walked away from there with the win. This could be a long afternoon for Novara with Verona free scoring at home, averaging just under 3 a game and Novara’s defensive frailties.
Pazzini has been banging them in for Verona with 11 goals already this season, four of which were first goals, and five have been penalties. Definitely worth a look for the goal scorer markets if he starts, which I expect him to. No injuries that I am aware of and only Mohamed Fares missing with the red card suspension, he picked up in injury time at Spezia last weekend.
Must be kicking himself……. as well as the opposition.
Couple of other considerations, Verona have been leading at half time in 5 of their 6 home games this season and in 77% of all their total games this season. This could also be a decent Inplay opportunity for a first half goal as 32% of their goals this season have been scored between 30-45 minutes.
Suggested Bets:
- Verona HT/FT @ 2.7 Coral
- Pazzini FGS/AGS @ 4.33/1.95 B365
- My pick: Verona -1 Asian Handicap @ 2.26 bet Victor 2 points
Kick Off 1.30 pm Italy Lega Pro A: Cremonese v Robur Siena
Siena travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face second placed Cremonese. Siena themselves sit in 11th and are a good attacking outfit. They have only failed to score in 1 of their 12 games this season and have found the net in all 6 away games to date. Even though they arwe 11th tehy are only 6 points off 3rd place, and if they could stop leaking goals and see games out they would quickly move up the table.
Cremonese need the win to keep the pressure on Alessandria at the top of the table. the last time these two met at the Stadio Giovanni Zini was back in 1999 so even though it was a 1-1 draw on that occasion it is not overly relevant to today’s match.
Cremonese have been in great form at home but they do have a propensity to concede. They have only kept 1 clean sheet in 6 and combined with Siena’s goal scoring record, this fixture looks nailed on for BTTS. If we look at Cremonese at home and Siena away BTTS has landed 83% this season. Cremonese despite often conceding at home have a strong home record, P6, W5, L1. The only loss coming at the back end of September with a 1-2 defeat by 3rd place Piacenza.
Siena’s overall away record isn’t dreadful P6, W2, D2 & L2. However the 2 wins they notched up were against relegation threatened sides and the 2 draws were against Pontedra (another team at the bottom of the league) and Como currently in 7th. Cremonese will be a much bigger ask for them currently in second. Interestingly Siena’s two away losses have been against Alessandria and Arezzo, currently 1st and 3rd respectively.
Suggested Bets:
- Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.05
- Both teams to score in both halves @ 19.0 Bet365
- My Pick: Cremonese win and BTTS @ 4.2 Betfair 2pts
Other fancies to win today, Antwerp (Belgium), Entella (Italy), Frederica (Denmark), Perugia (Italy) & Matera (Italy).
Good luck if you get on any of the above.
Cheers
Mark
Points staked 4
Points returned 0
Monthly +0.8
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