Morning all,
Yesterday’s only selection did well to run into a place and a decent return for us at 16s, the twitter fancies continued to tick along with a winner at 10s. Onto the selections today.
The selections :
Running P/L – (+13.33pts)
5:30 Lingfield
Corazon Espinado 9/1 (widely available 1/5 for 3 places BOG) 1pt ew
The horse looked over-priced to me at 8s as it has won over the course and distance just 3 starts ago in a better race. He won a class 3 handicap at the start of the year and is now down to a class 4 today. He is only 1lb higher today than he was for that win and in an easier race looks set to go close if not win it. The only concern for me would be Luke Morris’s recent form but a TJ combo of 19% over the past year and a 12.75% SR at the course for the jockey over the last 5 years instills confidence that he could bounce back today.
1:50 Newmarket
Ornate 25/1 (LB and Boyles 1/5 for 4 places BOG) (WH has 5 places for 22/1 BOG) 0.75pt ew
In an open enough race, I am punting on Ornate to run them down from the front. He has won over course and distance last year from the front and whilst he could finish last given the quality of opposition today I feel at 25s is value especially considering the front running bias at Newmarket yesterday. He has also undergone another wind surgery which could help.
4:45 Newmarket
Three Saints Bay 16/1 (WH 1/5 for 3 places BOG) (16/1 3 places widely available) 0.75pt ew
The horse has had its last 2 runs over the AW at 6f which I believe doesn’t suit him. Those runs might just have been there to drop its mark and is now running off 3lb lower than his last winning mark and returns to 7f which should suit. The horse has won fresh previously and an 11% TJ combo over the last year offers hope for another good run.
Points staked- 5
I have linked the racing post race-card for each horse and it should direct you to the respective race should you click on the horse’s name if you would like to dive deeper into the form.
Good luck as always
Utsav