Evening Guys
Apologies for the lack of posts and picks recently, but it is the off season for the footy and I have been working on the new eBook for the Premier League 2016/2017 season.
I just thought I would give a sample of what I have been working on by giving a team breakdown. The book will have much more, including league trends, referee performance and player stats in terms of goalscorers. Anyway, here is a preview of betting on Arsenal in the Premier League, based on game outcomes over the past 5 seasons.
Some of the team intro is very much tongue in cheek but the stats are indisputable 🙂
Club: Arsenal
Founded: 1886
Ground: The Emirates
Capacity: 60355
Nickname: The Gunners
Manager: Arsene Wenger (Joined Sept 1996, Tenure 19yrs 11 months)
Honours: Prem League (Division 1) 13, FA Cup 12, League Cup 2, Community Shield 14, UEFA Cup Winners Cup 1.
Playing Style: Intricate, sometimes overly, often criticised for trying to walk the ball into the net, but great on the eye when in full flow. Susceptible to injuries.
Standard Formation: French
Key Players: N/A
Strengths: Aug – Feb
Weaknesses: Mid February to end of season
Premier League finishing position15/16: 2nd
Average PL finishing Position last 10 years: 4th (Unconfirmed as the average, but they do like this spot)
Summing up: One of the most consistent clubs in the PL over the last 2 decades, with a manager that sticks to his philosophy sometimes to the detriment of results, in his own words,
“At a young age winning is not the most important thing… the important thing is to develop creative and skilled players with good confidence.”
Since the move from Highbury to the Emirates, spending has been restricted which has impacted player acquisition but now free of that debt, they should really be bringing in the top players. Whilst they have made some notable signings in the past 3 years this is a issue that many believe is yet to be addressed. An ever present in the top 4 of the PL and as such perennial qualifiers for the champions league. They have never recaptured the level of the “Invincibles” season of 03/04 and are yet to win Europe’s most prestigious trophy. Finished 2nd last year and if you had backed them to win all their games not only last year, but in the past 5 years, you would be returning a loss.
Betting Summary
Backing Arsenal to win their games either home or away would have resulted in a loss the past 5 seasons. I have gone into far more depth in the eBook that looks at all the home, win, draw and overs markets at the average pre game price and pick out the winning lines. There are not many from a betting perspective.
It’s not all bad news though if you know what to look for, let’s look at the usual pre game markets over the past 5 years, Home Win, Away Win, Draw Result (12X), and the Over 2.5 match goal outcome (Overs).
Over 2.5 match goals is the only usual pre-game market where we would have been ahead of the game over the past 5 years to any significant extent. If you backed all Arsenal away games to go overs it would see just a meagre 1 point ahead at average odds. However, if we back at the break even line or greater @ 1.76 then 48 games would have given us 54.7 pts returns a ROI of 13.95%.
Interestingly the same is not seen in the home games and overs makes a loss, either by backing all or at the break even line. Below is the Home probability of outcomes for the past 5 years.
For those not familiar with the “value line” then I have already written a brief eBook which is available free to those that subscribe to the blog.
Considering this is one of the teams that have consistently finished high in the league over that period, it is unsurprising that they are a strong team for the bookie and not for us.
There will be far more in the eBook for the whole of the premier league with each team summarised, including the above pre-game markets and also opportunities to look at goalscorer markets, and cards based on referee performance.
Stay Lucky.
Mark
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